Sunrise, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS62 KMFL 061056
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
656 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A considerable plume of Saharan Dust is forecast to remain in place
across South Florida through the period, while an area of high
pressure will continue to build in from the western Atlantic while
ridging sets up aloft. The combination of this blocking pattern and
the presence of the Saharan dust will help inhibit widespread
convective development each day. Portions of the interior could
still see a few stray showers develop where the sea breezes meet
each afternoon given enough lingering moisture in the area (observed
and forecast PWATs in the 1.5-1.8 inch range, about average for this
time of year) but coverage and duration will be minimal and
transient.

Temperatures today will climb back into the upper 80s for the East
Coast and up to the low to mid 90s across southwest Florida.
Conditions warm up even further on Saturday thanks to the influence
of the lingering Saharan dust, with highs reaching the low 90s
across the East Coast, and potentially hitting the mid to upper 90s
over southwest FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Saturday night - Sunday night: Ridging aloft will continue to build
over the Gulf and the western Atlantic this weekend, while high
pressure continues to build in from the western Atlantic at the
surface. Light easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail as a
result, allowing for the gradually thinning Saharan dust plume to
linger across the region through the weekend. Convective develop
will remain constrained sea breeze-induced showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon, with chances in the 30-40% range over the interior
and 20-30% over the East Coast.

Monday - Thursday: The pattern becomes a bit more progressive at the
beginning of the new week as a mid-level trough will begin to
deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Model guidance now shows the
Gulf ridge weakening as a result, making way for the ridge over the
western Atlantic to begin expanding eastward into our region, in
concert with its corresponding surface high, which will continue to
build into South FL. Meanwhile, NASA/GMAO GEOS modeling of the Dust
Aerosol Optical Thickness has the dust clearing out on Monday
afternoon. If both of these solutions pans out, the building ridge
could act to keep the mid-level trough well north of our area, and
with it the more unsettled and impactful weather. However, with the
Saharan dust finally clearing making way for tropical moisture to
return to the area, the chances for mesoscale driven showers and
thunderstorms along the sea breezes each afternoon could increase
considerably mid week. And if the trough happens to dip any further
south, it could result in even higher chances for unsettled weather.
For now, we`re going with a forecast that straddles both the drier
and wetter solutions with PoPs in the 50-70% range, but the forecast
will need to be closely monitored and adjusted over the next couple
of days if this trend changes.

Daily high temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s each
day with highest temperatures over the interior. Overnight lows each
night will be in the low 70s around the Lake Okeechobee region and
interior, with mid 70s for the Gulf coast and upper 70s for the east
coast metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

SCT MVFR ceilings throughout the day. Light SE winds 5-10 kts,
with an afternoon Gulf breeze expected at APF. SCT showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the interior late this afternoon, with
VCSH in at APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across the
local waters today, but will gradually weaken heading into
Saturday as a surface high builds over the region. Winds in the
Gulf could veer from the southwest each afternoon as the Gulf
Breeze develops. Isolated to scattered showers remain possible
each afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
Coast beaches today. The rip current risk will gradually diminish
heading into the weekend as onshore flow continues to weaken.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  78  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
West Kendall     91  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10
Opa-Locka        91  78  92  78 /  20  10  20  10
Homestead        89  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  89  77 /  20  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  90  77  91  77 /  20  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   91  79  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  90  76  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
Boca Raton       86  76  89  76 /  20  10  20  10
Naples           90  75  91  76 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF