Sunrise, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

232
FXUS62 KMFL 042300
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
700 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing and will
   persist until sunset. Frequent lighting, heavy downpours, and
   isolated wind gusts to 45 mph are the primary threats.

 - Heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding through this
   evening, especially urban and poor drainage areas.

 - Heat Advisory remains in effect for metro Miami-Dade, Broward,
   and Palm Beach Counties through 8 PM this evening. Peak heat
   index values will range from around 105 to 110 F. Wear light-
   weight, light color clothing and stay hydrated.

 - There is a Medium (50 percent) chance of advisory-level heat
   for metro Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties on Sunday
   and Monday. Heat continues to build on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Numerous showers and thunderstorms were developing this afternoon
within mean (0-3 km) Southerly flow around 5 kts in an air mass
characterized by Perceptible Water up to 2.1 inches per satellite
derived estimates. As of 3 PM, the majority of the shower and
thunderstorm activity has shifted to interior South Florida where
mesoanalysis shows the deepest moist convergence as the Gulf and
Atlantic seabreezes interact. While east coast metro areas are
overworked from earlier activity, SB CAPE around 4k J/kg as well
as numerous outflow boundaries will likely reignite activity over
the next couple of hours. DCAPE is increasing, with latest MIA
ACARS sounding indicating around 800 J/kg, and mesoanalysis also
shows similar values over Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. While
the main concern with thunderstorms is wind gusts to 45 mph,
cannot rule out an isolated gust to 55 mph mainly in the Southeast
coastal metro areas. Given the aforementioned Precipitable Water
values are over the 90th percentile per SPC Sounding Climatology,
combined with easterly storm motions only around 5 to 10 kts, and
some storms may lead to localized flooding through this evening,
especially urban and poor drainage areas. The storms and their
associated lightning threat will diminish around sunset.

Turning our attention to the heat as of 3 PM, many of the mesonet
sites in the metro Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties
that have not been cooled by earlier/ongoing convection show heat
index values around 105-108F. The heat advisory will remain in
effect through 8 PM this evening.

On Sunday, Precipitable Water is modeled around 1.9 inches, near
the 75th percentile per SPC Sounding Climatology, which is drier
compared to Saturday. The low-level flow will be more Southeast,
which should preclude the earlier start to convection across the
east coast metro areas. While the mean (0-3 km) flow will be out
of the Southeast around 5 to 10 kts, similar to Saturday, expect
less shower/storm coverage due to the drier air aloft. Convective
development will favor interior and Southwest FL coastal areas
with seabreeze/outflow boundaries as primary forcing mechanisms.
Mid-level lapse rates are modeled steeper compared to Saturday
around 6.5 C/km and DCAPE may approach 800 J/kg across much of
the area. In addition to frequent lighting and heavy downpours,
isolated thunderstorm wind gusts to 55 mph are the main threats.

The heat will again be a concern on Sunday. There is a Medium
(50 percent) chance of advisory-level heat for metro Miami-Dade,
Broward and Palm Beach Counties from late morning through the
early evening. While convection is expected to start later and
highs will be similar to Saturday, the key will be dew points
which may be a degree or two lower. Peak heat index values will
range from around 105 to 108 F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Monday will feature a similar pattern to Sunday, although with a
greater coverage of showers and storms is possible. This will
influence the extent of heat indices, with a Medium (50 percent)
chance of advisory-level heat for metro Miami-Dade, Broward and
Palm Beach Counties. For Tuesday through Friday, South Florida
will be increasingly under the influence of the western extension
of the subtropical ridge. This introduces some uncertainty into
the precipitation forecast. If Southeast low to mid-level flow is
maintained, then precip chances would be higher, compared to lower
with Southwest low to mid-level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VCTS will continue at much of the east coast metro terminals until
around 01Z, followed by lingering SCT025 cigs overnight at all
of the terminals. Another round of TSRA are expected on Sunday
with the Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes moving inland during the
afternoon and evening. Have included VCTS by 18Z followed by
PROB30 groups. Brief restrictions to MVFR are possible with TSRA
along with wind gusts around 25 kts. Activity should end by 01Z
Monday at MIA and FLL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The coastal waters will be under the influence of the western
extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge over the next several
days. Tonight through Monday, light to gentle breezes will favor a
Southeast direction over the Atlantic waters and a Southwest
direction over the Gulf waters, although becoming more onshore
within the seabreeze zone from late morning into the evening hours.
From Tuesday through Thursday, the ridge axis may shift north of the
waters, which would introduce moderate Southeast breezes. Over the
next several days, showers and thunderstorms will favor the open
Atlantic and Gulf waters from late night into the morning, then
developing over inland areas by the afternoon into the evening,
although some of these could move out over the waters. The main
concern will be briefly higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms and their associated outflow boundaries. Looking
ahead, the overall coverage of showers and storms should decrease by
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  79  92 /  20  60  20  80
West Kendall     75  91  76  92 /  20  60  20  80
Opa-Locka        78  92  79  93 /  20  60  30  80
Homestead        79  91  79  92 /  20  50  20  70
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  80  91 /  20  50  30  80
N Ft Lauderdale  79  90  79  91 /  20  60  30  80
Pembroke Pines   80  93  80  94 /  20  60  30  80
West Palm Beach  78  91  78  91 /  30  60  20  80
Boca Raton       79  90  79  91 /  20  60  20  80
Naples           78  90  78  92 /  60  40  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-
     172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF